A flight from the dollar could wreck America’s finances
The currency’s dominance enables very high debts and deficits, meaning a plunge might spell disaster
In 1990s Japan the worst days of a market crisis brought about a “triple yasu” loss: a fall in stockmarkets, a rise in bond yields and a declining currency. It is now America that must stomach this noxious combination. Although President Donald Trump’s tariff pause provided a brief respite, the triple yasu has made an unwelcome return. Most alarming lately have been movements in the bond and currency markets. In total since April 1st the dollar has fallen by more than 4% against a basket of major currencies, at the same time as yields on ten-year Treasury bonds have risen by 0.3 percentage points (see chart).
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